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  • NMC removes 150 MBBS seat cap and population ratio rule: what changed in the April 2026 amendment

    Key takeaways

    • NMC has removed the 150-seat cap on MBBS intake per college. The amendment was published in the official gazette on 27 April 2026.
    • The population ratio rule (100 MBBS seats per 10 lakh state population) has also been removed. States with high medical college density are no longer blocked from adding seats.
    • The 30-minute travel time rule between college and hospital has been replaced with a fixed distance: 10 km maximum (15 km for North Eastern and Himalayan states).
    • These changes do not affect the NEET 2026 exam on 3 May. They affect how many seats colleges can offer in future counselling rounds.

    What the gazette notification says

    On 27 April 2026, the NMC published a gazette notification amending UG-MSR 2023, the regulations governing medical college establishment, new courses, and seat increases. Three changes were made.

    1. The 150-seat cap has been removed

    UG-MSR 2023 included an objective that read: “Colleges seeking increased number of seats cannot exceed a total of 150 MBBS students from the Year 2024-25.” That line has been deleted.

    Prior to UG-MSR 2023, which was notified in August 2023, the regulations allowed colleges to expand MBBS intake up to 250 seats. The 2023 regulations cut this to 150. The April 2026 amendment removes the 150-seat restriction without specifying a new upper limit.

    2. The population ratio rule has been removed

    UG-MSR 2023 required medical colleges to “follow the ratio of 100 MBBS seats per 10 lakh population in that state/U.T.” This proviso has been deleted.

    The population ratio rule had effectively frozen seat additions in states that already had a high density of medical colleges. Karnataka, with roughly 13,900 MBBS seats across 71 colleges, had about 170 seats per 10 lakh population — well over the 100-seat ceiling. Maharashtra, with about 12,800 seats across 69 colleges, sat right at the limit. Both states would have been blocked from approving any new colleges or seat increases under the old rule. With this proviso gone, NMC will no longer use state population as a gatekeeping criterion.

    3. The distance rule is now fixed, not time-based

    The old requirement said travel time between a medical college and its teaching hospital should not exceed 30 minutes. The new rule sets a fixed distance instead:

    • 10 km maximum for colleges in general
    • 15 km maximum for colleges in North Eastern Region states and Himalayan states

    A fixed-distance rule is easier to verify than a travel-time estimate, which varied depending on traffic conditions and the route chosen.

    You can read the full gazette notification on the NMC website (PDF).

    What this means for NEET 2026 aspirants

    The NEET UG 2026 exam is on 3 May. This notification does not change anything about the exam itself, the scoring, or the ranking process.

    Where it matters is seat availability during counselling. If colleges receive NMC approval to expand their MBBS intake before the counselling seat matrix is published, those additional seats would appear in the 2026-27 counselling rounds. Whether any approvals come through that quickly is unclear; NMC approval for seat increases typically involves inspection and assessment cycles that take months.

    For students using our College Predictor or AI Choice Filler, the current cutoff data remains valid. Historical closing ranks are based on the seat counts that existed during those counselling years. If a college you are tracking adds seats in a future cycle, its closing ranks would likely shift upward (become numerically higher, meaning the college becomes easier to get into). The size of that shift depends on how many seats are added and how much demand exists for that college.

    This amendment allows expansion but does not mandate it. Whether individual colleges actually add seats depends on their infrastructure, faculty strength, hospital bed capacity, and willingness to apply for NMC assessment. Many colleges may not expand at all.

    Why this matters beyond 2026

    India has been expanding MBBS seats steadily over the past decade. The 150-seat cap and population ratio rule, introduced in August 2023, slowed that expansion in states that already had many medical colleges. Removing both restrictions signals that the government wants to accelerate seat growth again.

    For NEET aspirants in future years, more seats across the system would mean more options at every rank level. But the effect is gradual: colleges need to apply, get inspected, and receive NMC approval before they can admit additional students. Do not expect a sudden jump in available seats for the upcoming counselling cycle.

    We will update our data as soon as the 2026-27 counselling seat matrices are released by MCC, KEA, and CET Cell. If any colleges show increased intake, those new numbers will be reflected in our cutoff explorer and prediction tools.

    FAQ

    Does this affect the NEET 2026 exam?

    No. The exam syllabus, pattern, scoring, and ranking are unrelated to medical college seat regulations. Your NEET 2026 exam on 3 May proceeds as scheduled.

    Will there be more MBBS seats in 2026-27 counselling?

    Possibly, but not guaranteed. Colleges must apply to NMC for seat increases and pass an assessment before they can admit more students. The gazette notification removes the cap; it does not automatically grant anyone additional seats.

    Does this affect All India Quota counselling?

    If any government college adds seats before the AIQ seat matrix is finalised, 15% of those new seats would flow into the All India Quota pool. But this depends on whether colleges receive approval in time for the 2026-27 cycle.

    What was the MBBS seat cap before 2023?

    Before UG-MSR 2023 was notified in August 2023, the regulations allowed colleges to expand MBBS intake up to 250 students. The 2023 regulations lowered this to 150. The April 2026 amendment deletes the 150 cap without specifying a replacement number.

    Which states are most affected by the population ratio removal?

    Karnataka and Maharashtra, the two states neet2seat currently covers, were both constrained. Karnataka had the highest seat density in India at roughly 170 MBBS seats per 10 lakh population, well above the 100-seat ceiling. Maharashtra sat right at the limit with about 103 per 10 lakh. Other southern states including Tamil Nadu (~150 per 10 lakh), Kerala (~130), and Telangana (~220) were similarly over the cap. Northern and eastern states with fewer medical colleges per capita were largely unaffected by this rule.

  • Why exactly 56% of NEET candidates qualify every year, no matter how hard the paper is

    Every year after NEET results come out, headlines say something like “only 12.36 lakh qualified” or “pass percentage drops due to tough paper.” The framing implies that a harder exam means fewer students get through. It’s intuitive, and it’s wrong.

    The data

    Here are the last four years of NEET results. Pay attention to the pass rate column.

    Year Appeared Qualified Pass rate Top score Difficulty
    2022 17.65L 9.93L 56.3% 715 Normal
    2023 20.24L 11.46L 56.2% ~720 Normal
    2024 23.33L 13.16L 56.4% 720 (multiple perfect scores) Easy
    2025 22.09L 12.36L 56.0% 686 (top score) Tough

    Four different papers. Two normal years, one where multiple students scored a perfect 720 (2024), and one where the highest score was just 686 (2025). The pass rate varies by 0.4 percentage points across all four. It doesn’t budge.

    Why it doesn’t budge

    NEET’s qualifying cutoff is not a fixed marks threshold. It’s a percentile.

    NTA sets the cutoff at the 50th percentile for General category candidates and the 40th percentile for OBC, SC, and ST candidates. This means, by definition, roughly 50% of General candidates and 60% of reserved-category candidates will clear the qualifying bar every year. When you blend those proportions across the full test-taking population, you get approximately 56%.

    A tough paper lowers the marks at which the 50th percentile falls. In 2025, you could qualify with lower marks in absolute terms than in 2024, because the entire score distribution shifted downward. But the same proportion of students still cleared the bar, because the bar moved with them.

    An easy paper does the opposite: the percentile cutoff translates to higher marks, but the score distribution shifts upward too. More students score higher marks, but no more students (proportionally) qualify.

    So what does difficulty actually change?

    If the pass rate is structurally fixed, difficulty still matters. It just matters differently from how most people think.

    Difficulty changes the score distribution. A tough paper spreads out scores. The gap between rank 10,000 and rank 20,000 might be 30 marks. That gives counselling more room to separate candidates, and it means that gaining or losing 10 marks in the exam translates to a large rank shift. On an easy paper, scores compress near the top. The gap between rank 10,000 and rank 20,000 might be only 10 marks. A single wrong answer can cost you thousands of ranks.

    Counselling cutoffs shift too. The closing rank for a specific college depends on the score distribution that year. A college that closed at rank 25,000 on a normal paper might close at 22,000 on a tough one and 28,000 on an easy one. The college’s “quality” hasn’t changed; the yardstick has.

    Your preparation should account for both scenarios. Build a preference list that includes colleges you’d get into on a tough paper (where your rank might be better than expected) and colleges you’d still want on an easy paper (where rank compression might push you further down than you’d like). Planning for a single outcome is fragile.

    What this means for NEET 2026

    22.79 lakh students have registered. If about 98% attend (NTA says 99% received their first-choice exam city, so attendance should be strong), that’s roughly 22.33 lakh in exam halls. At the structural 56% qualification rate, about 12.5 lakh will qualify.

    That’s the number competing for 1.29 lakh MBBS seats, regardless of whether May 3 brings a tough paper or an easy one. The ratio works out to about 9.7 qualified candidates per seat.

    Whether the paper is hard or easy on Sunday won’t change how many of you qualify. It will change which colleges are within reach at your specific rank. Prepare for the exam, but plan your preference list for a range of outcomes.

    Data sources: NTA official results for NEET UG 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025. NMC MBBS Seat Matrix 2025-26.